Abstract

Urban economy is the main driver of the economic development in Ethnic Areas，which is crucial for Ethnic Areas to improve welfare of ethnic minorities and construct an all-well around society. However，The Ethnic Areas are confronted with a lower economic growth rate which can be called The New Normal. Transformation of economic growth pattern is an urgent problem for Ethnic Areas to solve. The key of transformation is industry structure，and“One belt One road”initiative gives Ethnic Areas an opportunity to upgrad their industry structure. In order to achieve a more fittable industry structure，we should know two issues. Firstly，we should know what kind of industry structure can benefit Ethnic Areas more. Secondly，we also should know what should we do to achieve that.

In this research，the industrial structure is divided into specialization，related diversification and unrelated diversification in agglomeration perspective. We plan to do some empirical studies such as the relationship between the urban industrial structure and the urban economic growth，productivity，livelihood improvement，and the determination of the factors which influence Ethnic Areas’industrial structure.

As a result，research ideas are as follows：First，we estimated the indexes of specialization，related diversification，unrelated diversification，which are about to the industrial structure，and Malmquist productivity，that are related to the cities of Ethnic Areas. Second，this paper made empirical tests on the relationship between specialization，diversification and urban economic growth in Ethnic Areas by using threshold panel model. At the same time，we found the answer of“what industrial structure is good for economic growth of Ethnic Areas？”Third，This paper made an empirical test on the relationship between specialization，diversification and the TFP including decomposition of urban TFP. Then，found the answer of“what factor and industrial structure are useful for urban economic growth and TFP improvement？”Forth，we made an empirical test on the relationship between industrial structure and spillover effects of urban economic by using the FGT poverty index of rural to reflect the relationship between urban and rural areas and spillover effects. Fifth，we also made an empirical test on influence factors which affecting the formation of specialization and diversification structures，and highlighted the influence of ethnic diversity on the structure formation. Consequently，we did Policy analysis on how to guide and shape the appropriate industrial structure in Ethnic Areas.

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows：First，in the course of development in the past，specialization was more conducive to urban economic growth than diversification in Ethnic Areas. Also，related diversification is more conducive to urban economic growth than unrelated diversification. Moreover，the positive impact of related diversification tended to be more as time went by. Second，the relationship between specialization，related diversification，unrelated diversification and urban TFP is in dynamic heterogeneous. The positive impact of specialization to urban productivity was inverted“U”. However，the positive impact of diversification to urban productivity was more and more significant，the larger the urban economic，the more obvious the manifestation. Third，poverty reduction of specialization is more obvious than that of diversification，and related diversification is more conducive to poverty alleviation than the unrelated diversification. Forth，Policy driven，market driven and environmental disturbances are the important sources of diversified urban industrial structure. Ethnic diversity has a positive impact on the unrelated diversification of urban industry through the diversification of demand in Ethnic Areas，however，not to improve the level of related diversification.

The policy implications of this paper are as follows：specialization plays an important role in the development of urban economy in Ethnic Areas. The strategy of industry specialization can solve the main contradiction of generally underdevelopment in Ethnic Areas. However，in order to reflect the efficiency and improve the people’s livelihood，we ought to focus on the economic development by means of specialization，and establish a strong relationship between related diversification and employment improvement. Therefore，the current strategy of urban industrial development in Ethnic Areas should focus on the promotion of the significant role of specialization in economic growth，but should focus on the role of related diversification in economic growth and employment improvement. The long-term goals of urban economic growth in Ethnic Areas is to continue local education investment and human capital accumulation，which can avoid the low skill locked which caused by short-term professional dividend.

Key words：ethnic areas；agglomeration；urban economy；industrial structure；specialization；related diversification；unrelated diversification